Over the next two decades. The residential Solar Power industry
is set to create up towards a quarter of a million jobs. It will replace over 40
coal power plants and provide tens of millions of Americans with billions of
dollars in savings on their electricity bill. How do we make this happen? We
simply need to look at the numbers and tell regulators and investors to get with
it, face the facts, remove red-tape and stop clinging to an aging fossil energy
infrastructure. The technology is finally mature and ready. Solar energy is a
significant if not dominating part of the U.S. energy future.
Solar is becoming
cheaper than regular household cost of electricity.
Solar system prices have dropped consistently over the last
two decades, and many researchers believe we are not done yet:
- Increasing supply of solar modules will continue to drive down prices.
- Module efficiency is increasing, producing more energy per dollar of cost.
- Mounting racks, tracking devices, inverters etc. are also demonstrably becoming cheaper.
- Cost of red tape such as interconnection regulations and permitting is twice as high in the U.S. as in Germany and will and should come down.
- Regular electricity prices are projected to continue to rise with demand.
- U.S. is moving away from cheap but dirty coal towards already more expensive natural gas and nuclear.
- Oil, coal and uranium prices are increasing.
- Emissions regulations are likely to increase for fossil fuel generation in the longer term.
Americans are quickly
getting the idea, money saved is money earned!
“Why is all this important?” you may ask. It is important
because the cost of a solar system and the cost of electricity are the two
major (if not only) elements that drive the level of solar installations in the
U.S. in the long run. Subsidies, grants and tax credits cannot always be
around.
In 2012, a SEIA poll showed that 92% of Americans believe the US should develop and use more solar
energy. Look now at the projected trend for unsubsidized solar system electricity
prices, predicting them dipping below regular electricity prices nation-wide, within
the next five to ten years.
Remember then that business models exist in the U.S. already
that allow households to have solar systems installed on their roofs without
paying a penny out of their pocket, and that these business models can already
save people 20% on their electricity bill every year. Companies such as SunRun, Solarcity and Sungevity pick up
the tab in exchange for a yearly leasing fee, which is lower than what people paid for their electricity before.
With this in mind, it’s hard not to imagine that the growth
in solar systems installations is going to continue at a rapid pace!
So here’s the pitch!
If just a third of these 92% of Americans decide over the next two
decades, before 2030, to save money on their electricity bill, without having
to move a muscle, there will essentially be about 35 million households with
solar systems in 2030. 35 million!
Assuming that system sizes stay about the same on average, that’s
a total of $543 billion in investment into an energy source that is clean,
non-volatile, predictable and that creates jobs.
Assuming a total of 30 hours per installation and 2 hours in
yearly maintenance, this scenario would create about 180,000 full-time jobs
before 2030. And that not counting the numerous jobs in administration, financing,
transmission, production and support that come with it which would likely bring
it over a quarter million.
The total energy produced would be enough to replace over 40
coal power plants!
Many will point to often-cited arguments against solar such
as grid reliability or back-up generation. But for every argument you find
against, there are people who can explain you how those problems are handled. Long-distance
power transmission, energy demand response and 24-hour solar generation are among them.
So what am I saying? I’m saying that the solar industry is
grossly underestimated by the media and lacks more informed investors. It has
the potential to be a trillion dollar industry over the next decades. It brings
power generation into communities and away from dirty fossil fuel plants. It
provides energy security and energy independence. And it does all this cheaply while
creating hundreds of thousands of domestic and non-outsourceable jobs. If you
think I’m being too optimistic, try reading the book “Solar Trillions” by
Stanford Professor, Tony Seba, who is on the same page.
Let’s get behind this, support energy regulations supporting
this revolution, remove red-tape, tell our friends and colleagues. Corporations
such as Deutsche Bank, Google and Walmart are among some of the private
institutions who are getting it and getting in early, and more are coming. Let’s
go!
/Andreas Nicolet
Assumptions and calculations:
[4] 2012 Census
